PROVENIQ Impact Assessment Study: A Forensic Framework for Establishing Missing Pet Recovery Metrics in Data-Scarce Environments
Executive Summary
The capability to accurately measure the efficacy of lost pet recovery systems is the fundamental prerequisite for optimizing animal welfare interventions. For PROVENIQ, a platform designed to accelerate the reunification of missing pets with their guardians, the analytical challenge is profound. The core value proposition—reducing the “Time to Recovery” (TTR)—must be proven in environments where historical data regarding lost pet episodes is frequently nonexistent, fragmented across non-interoperable silos, or structurally inaccessible. This “Cold Start” problem is particularly acute in municipal environments like Greenbrier County, West Virginia, which serves as the primary laboratory for this analysis.
This research report provides an exhaustive, metric-by-metric methodology for establishing a performance baseline in the absence of pre-existing structured data. By synthesizing forensic data reconstruction techniques, analyzing the specific operational and legal constraints of the Greenbrier ecosystem, and benchmarking against “Gold Standard” academic literature, we construct a robust framework for measuring the metric: “Number of Missing Pets Recovered Faster.”
Our analysis reveals that while the “Time of Loss” ($T_0$) is invisible to current shelter software systems like PetPoint and Shelterluv, it leaves a distinct forensic footprint in adjacent administrative logs—specifically, the Computer Aided Dispatch (CAD) records of the Greenbrier County Sheriff’s Department and the intake notes of the Greenbrier Humane Society (GHS). Furthermore, the unique “no-kill for space” policy maintained by GHS for the last nine years provides a unusually stable control environment for longitudinal study, free from the data censorship caused by euthanasia-driven turnover.
1. The Measurement Paradox in Animal Welfare
1.1 The Epistemology of the “Cold Start”
In the domain of data science, the “Cold Start” problem typically refers to the inability of a recommendation engine to score items it has never seen. In the context of PROVENIQ and municipal animal control, the problem is more fundamental: it is an epistemological crisis. How can an organization claim to be “faster” if the historical speed of the system remains unmeasured?
Traditional animal welfare infrastructure is engineered for inventory management, not service optimization. Major stakeholders (shelters/humane societies) operate under legal mandates to track the animal from the moment of intake to the moment of outcome. Consequently, the recorded metrics serve the institution: “Length of Stay” (LOS), “Live Release Rate” (LRR), and “Cost per Daily Care.”
However, the “Customer Journey” of a lost pet begins significantly earlier than the “System Journey.” The metric “Time to Recovery” (TTR) is composed of two distinct intervals:
- The Missing Interval ($T_{total}$): Duration from the pet escaping to the pet being secured by a safe party (finder or shelter).
- The Custodial Interval ($T_{red}$): Duration from the pet being secured to the owner redeeming the animal.
Current systems only measure the second interval. The first interval—the period of highest anxiety—is a “Dark Figure,” statistically invisible in standard reports. PROVENIQ’s primary intervention is to compress this first interval. Therefore, utilizing standard shelter data to measure PROVENIQ’s success is a category error; it measures the efficiency of the warehouse, not the efficiency of the search.
1.2 The “Dark Figure” of Lost Pet Statistics
Criminologists use the term “Dark Figure” to describe unreported crimes. A similar phenomenon dominates lost pet data. Foundational research (Lord et al., 2007; Weiss et al., 2012) indicates that the vast majority of lost pet incidents are resolved within the community, never interacting with the formal shelter system.
For dogs, searching the neighborhood is the primary recovery method (49%), while only ~15-19% are recovered through animal control or shelter visits. For cats, the disconnect is even more severe: fewer than 2-5% of lost cats are recovered via shelters, with the majority (66%) returning home on their own.
Metric Bifurcation Strategy:
- Metric A (System-Mediated): For pets that do enter the shelter, is the duration of their stay shorter?
- Metric B (Community-Mediated): For pets that avoid the shelter, can we capture the timestamp of their virtual recovery?
2. The Greenbrier Ecosystem (Laboratory Analysis)
2.1 The Greenbrier Humane Society (GHS): Stable Data Custodian
GHS serves as the central node for animal welfare data in the region. Unlike municipal pounds with high turnover, GHS exhibits significant operational stability.
| Metric | GHS Analysis (2022-2023) |
|---|---|
| Operational Scale | ~1,500 animals per year (522 dogs, 955 cats). |
| Financial Stability | $867,740 total revenue (43.6% growth). |
| Euthanasia Policy | ”No-Kill” for space (9-year moratorium). |
| Metric Relevance | Stable, uncensored data for “time to outcome.” |
2.2 The Sheriff’s Department: First Responder Intelligence
While GHS holds the animals, they do not control the initial “Time of Report” ($T_1$). In Greenbrier County, Animal Control is a function dispatched via the Sheriff’s Department.
Citizens reporting a stray animal call Dispatch (304-647-7911). These calls are logged in a Computer Aided Dispatch (CAD) system, separate from shelter software. The CAD log contains the timestamp of the citizen’s call—the closest proxy to $T_0$ (Time of Loss). Accessing these CAD logs via administrative request is the single most important step in reconstructing the “Pre-Data” baseline.
2.3 The “Weekend Gap” Friction
GHS is open Tuesday through Saturday, 11:00 AM to 5:00 PM. It is closed Sundays and Mondays. This creates a “Redemption Bottleneck”: a pet lost Saturday evening might sit in the kennel until Tuesday morning purely due to administrative hours.
The PROVENIQ Opportunity: If PROVENIQ allows for digital identification (e.g., photo match) on Sunday morning, the “Time to Recovery” can be logged as “Sunday, 10:00 AM” (Virtual Recovery), even if the physical redemption happens Tuesday. This decoupling of Identity from Custody allows PROVENIQ to claim a massive reduction in TTR regardless of shelter hours.
3. The Regulatory “Metric Floor”
Metrics are constrained by state law. In West Virginia, specific statutes dictate the minimum time an animal must be held.
3.1 WV Code § 19-20-6 (The 5-Day Floor)
West Virginia Code mandates the “county dog warden” system. Owners typically have a 5-day window to redeem animals before they become county property. GHS enforces strict redemption protocols (proof of rabies vaccination, county dog tags). This administrative friction artificially inflates the TTR.
3.2 WV Code § 7-10-4 (Judicial Timelines)
For seizure or neglect cases, a hearing must be scheduled within 10 working days. These cases operate on a “Judicial Clock,” not a “Recovery Clock.” Metric Recommendation: Any record flagged as “Confiscate,” “Seizure,” or “Court Hold” must be explicitly excluded from TTR averages to prevent skewing.
4. Academic Meta-Analysis: The Global Control Group
In the absence of local pre-data, PROVENIQ must adopt “Global Baselines” from peer-reviewed literature.
| Metric | Canine Baseline (Lord et al., 2007) | Feline Baseline (LostPetResearch) |
|---|---|---|
| Median Recovery Time | 2 Days | 5 Days |
| Recovery Probability | 71% - 93% | 53% - 75% |
| Self-Return Rate | Low | 59% - 66% |
| Primary Method | Searching Neighborhood (49%) | Passive Waiting |
PROVENIQ Success Targets:
- Dogs: Reduce Median Recovery Time to < 24 Hours.
- Cats: Reduce Median Recovery Time to < 3 Days.
- Shelter RTO (Cats): Increase from <5% to > 10%.
5. Taxonomic Segmentation: The “PigPig” Variable
A robust system must account for outliers. The West Virginia ecosystem includes not just companion animals but also livestock, exemplified by “PigPig,” a potbellied pig found in St. Albans, WV (Kanawha County) in 2024.
- Logistical Drag: Livestock requires specialized transport and housing, extending “Processing Time.”
- Outcome Pathway: Recovery often involves sanctuaries rather than adoptions/RTO.
Metric Recommendation:
- Cohort A (High Velocity): Dogs. Metric = Hours.
- Cohort B (Passive Velocity): Cats. Metric = Days.
- Cohort C (Complex/Exotic): Livestock (Pigs, Goats, Horses). Metric = Weeks.
6. Operational Study Design
Phase 1: The Retrospective Audit (Months 1-3)
- Action: Secure 24 months of CAD logs and GHS PetPoint/Shelterluv exports.
- Goal: Calculate the “Average Dispatch-to-Intake Lag” to establish the Shadow Baseline.
Phase 2: The “Golden Question” (Months 4-12)
- Action: Modify user flow to capture high-fidelity $T_0$ data: “Date and Time you last saw your pet?”
- Goal: Compare PROVENIQ-generated TTR against the Shadow Baseline.
Phase 3: Kaplan-Meier Survival Analysis (Year 1)
- Action: Plot “Probability of Recovery” curves.
- Hypothesis: The PROVENIQ curve (Curve B) will show a steeper descent in the 0-24 hour window compared to the Academic Baseline (Curve A). The area between curves represents the “Time Saved.”
Conclusion
The absence of pre-existing data is not a barrier; it is a forensic challenge. By excavating administrative “sediment” (Sheriff’s logs, GHS intake notes), PROVENIQ can prove its efficacy. This framework transitions the region from reactive “dog catching” to proactive, data-driven community safety.